In the past two days, I have finished reading this book, Multipolar World Impact, which is a somewhat deep book. The author obviously has a deep understanding of the international situation and the economic and political development of various countries. Apart from the quotes, the writing style is not too easy to read, but if you can follow the author patiently, you can extract some interesting ideas from the book.
This book was written in 2017 and published in 2018. It now seems to be more than two years old. In the book, the author predicted a recession, and that the massive debt problems of nations would force everyone to sit down and talk and establish a new "multipolar" international order after it finally became impossible to use central bank power to solve it. Most of the predictions have not happened yet, and perhaps they are imminent, but globalization has indeed exacerbated the crisis of closure against the backdrop of US-China trade issues, which are spreading even more rapidly because of the new crown pandemic. The short-term stimulus will not be compensated for by growth as countries continue to offer more and more revitalization packages to stimulate their economies to address the epidemic's unemployment problem. Politically, international geopolitical conflicts are on the rise, China's idiosyncratic ways of doing things are coming to the forefront, and the West is responding in different ways. Whichever way you look at it, it's true that the US-dominated order of globalization established by the West is loosening up, but we don't yet know if everything is really heading towards the new order that is predicted in the book, or if it will be an even worse downturn or a prolonged move towards a bubble?
The author's prediction of a so-called multipolar world is the development of the international order into three major regions, Oceania, Eurasia, and East Asia, dominated by the United States, Europe, and China. Multi-polar in the sense that these regions would have their own internal common ways of doing and thinking, balanced by inter-regional agreements. Existing international organizations are outdated, the problems they were founded on no longer exist or are no longer relevant, and will be replaced by a new order or organization. Large countries will be triadic, medium-sized countries will find their place in the balance, and small countries will contribute to their respective regions with flexibility.
Such a so-called multipolar state has never really lasted in history, so we cannot tell what will happen now. So far in history, it has been one or two major powers influencing the majority of countries in the world. What is more interesting is that the book points out that democracy and freedom, the most powerful ideas in the era of globalization, will no longer be the most powerful. Countries in certain regions may accept stronger political leadership and accept this regional order. It may also be possible to create a new order by reaching a consensus between regions that accept each other's different values. At present, in the author's view, the most important variables are the Western-oriented Asian countries, such as Japan and India, which also have their own degree of economic and military power, and therefore, to some extent, the acceptance of geopolitical "consensus" by these countries is likely to be the main prerequisite for the regional equilibrium.
What will the future hold? We can only wait for time to tell. Perhaps in a year or two we can review the views in this book.
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